The market moves after Strictly Come Dancing #scd coupling

Louis Smith partnered with: Flavia
He's with the best possible partner for Latin and it must be Flavia's turn. If he shows any talent at all, a near solid win bet.
Best price now: 5/2 with Ladbrokes and others.

Denise van Outen partnered with: James
Can't decide about Denise. She will be good at performing the story and characterisation. Maybe too good and James Jordan can be mouthy with the judges.
Best price now: 7/2 with Sporting Bet

Kimberley Walsh partnered with: Pasha
Failed to make any kind of impression since Girls Aloud. But Pasha will be popular with the female voters so cannot be discounted. Too small a price for an each way shot.
Best price now: 5/1 with Boylesports

Nicky Byrne partnered with: Karen Hauer
Can't summon any interest in him at all even though he's partnered with hot new girl Karen who is apparently a Venezuelan mambo champion.
Best price now: 8/1 with Ladbrokes

Victoria Pendleton partnered with: Brendan
Oh dear Victoria. I wanted to back her each way but her price has sunk below the limit I set for an each way bet. Plus she has been partnered with a perpetual rule breaker. So unless I can get a better price, she's out of my list.
Best price now: 15/2 with Sky Bet

Dani Harmer partnered with: Vinthent
She's much chunkier than I expected. Feel thorry for Vinthent but no chance.
Best price now: 16/1 with Coral




The Others
Michael Vaughan partnered with: Natalie
Natalie must be bitterly disappointed.
Best price now: 25/1 with Bodog

Fern Britton partnered with: Artem
The sooner she goes out the better.
Best price now: 50/1 with Ladbrokes

Lisa Riley partnered with: Robin
Chunky and not as funny as she thinks she is.
Best price now: 50/1 with Ladbrokes and others.

Sid Owen partnered with: Ola
MEH! Sorry for Ola. BUT see conclusions.
Best price now: 50/1 with Ladbrokes and others.

Colin Salmon partnered with: Kristina
Might be interesting. Kristina is a little firecracker but mismatched in height.
Best price now: 50/1 with Sporting Bet

Richard Arnold partnered with: Erin
I doubt the BBC will let someone win who is so entrenched with ITV.
Best price now: 66/1 with Ladbrokes and others.

Johnny Ball partnered with: Aliona
I think this is Aliona getting smacked in the face by karma. All that *exercising* for the paps gone to waste!
Best price now: 80/1 with Sporting Bet

Jerry Hall partnered with: Anton
Poor Anton. This may be punishment for past errors of judgement. Still could be interesting because I'm sure Jerry has a few moves like an ex Mrs Jagger ready and waiting. Big price for a smooth Southern belle.
Best price now: 66/1 with Bet 365. Cut from 80/1 at Sporting Bet as I was watching.

ConclusionsLouis Smith is now as short as 2/1 in several places making him a pretty much clear favourite although it's still a blind bet, not having seen him dance. I like his partner Flavia's chances. I reckon that she has been chosen by the BBC because of her success with the unlikelyness that was Russell Grant last year. Also Louis has a good look for Latin which is Flavia's forté. I've taken a punt at the 5/2 and might have some more after he's taken a turn on the floor.

I'm quite surprised that Victoria Pendleton hasn't pushed Kimberley Walsh out of third favouritism. I think Kimberley is just being buoyed up by Girl's Aloud fans who may well find their loyalties tested. It looks like I'll be without an each way shot this year unless I take a small interest in Sid Owen at 50/1. It may sound strange but Ola has a knack for showing even the most unpromising material at its best. Her choreography is excellent and Sid Owen could pull off a surprise. I'm making him my dark horse.

There are some strange things in the betting market. 3 bookies make it odds on 8/11 to be a female winner and evens for a male. Betfair give Kimberley Walsh as the 1/10 odds on to be a top ten finisher with Louis Smith only 1/5 on.
It's a weird inconsistency that's probably best ignored.